Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Al Wahda FC travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan in Pro League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Monday 11 May 2026 at 18:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Khorfakkan — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Khorfakkan's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Wahda FC stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Wahda FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khorfakkan at 1.10 PPG versus Al Wahda FC's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Al Wahda FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Khorfakkan.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Dec 2025, ended Khorfakkan 0–1 Al Wahda FC — a Al Wahda FC win.

Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Profile

Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 64% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 62% | Al Wahda FC 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Khorfakkan surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Al Wahda FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.06 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.922 / defence 1.118 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.941 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.446. Al Wahda FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Khorfakkan's projected output down. Data: built from Khorfakkan's last 50 games and Al Wahda FC's last 50.

Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 25% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.97 | Draw 3.54 | Al Wahda FC 2.15. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Al Wahda FC 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Khorfakkan 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Wahda FC 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights