🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Al Bataeh.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh meet at Al Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Current Form

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Al Rashid Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Bataeh (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Bataeh away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Al Bataeh's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Bataeh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Across 7 previous meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2026, ended 4–0 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 53% versus Al Bataeh 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61% | Al Bataeh 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.12 xG and Al Bataeh 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.496 / defence 0.940 | Al Bataeh attack 0.841 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.444. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.496 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 51 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 19%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Al Bataeh 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% | Al Bataeh 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights