Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Nasr face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Khorfakkan travel to Al Maktoum Stadium to take on Al Nasr in Pro League (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Nasr stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Nasr have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Khorfakkan — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Khorfakkan have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Nasr 1.30 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Al Nasr, 2 for Khorfakkan and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Jan 2026, ended Al Nasr 0–0 Khorfakkan — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 64% and Khorfakkan 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 57% | Khorfakkan 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Nasr surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Khorfakkan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.15 xG and Khorfakkan 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.921 / defence 1.062 | Khorfakkan attack 0.958 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.497. Data: built from Al Nasr's last 42 games and Khorfakkan's last 42.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 29% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 3.49 | Draw 3.93 | Khorfakkan 2.18. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Nasr 50% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 29% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Al Nasr 1.15 / Khorfakkan 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.921 / def 1.062 | Khorfakkan attack 0.958 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Khorfakkan xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr 2 - 2 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 29% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Nasr and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (0.92) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Nasr's last 42 games and Khorfakkan's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
29%
3.49
25%
3.93
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.67
1.52
Khorfakkan xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
6%
16.02
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.52 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 16W 11D 15L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Khorfakkan's form line: 14W 9D 19L from 42 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.40 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 21 home games (9W 5D 7L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 9W 1D 11L from their last 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.50 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 62%.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Nasr (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Nasr
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.52 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won Khorfakkan 4-0 Al Nasr.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
4
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Nasr have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 62%, Khorfakkan 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al Nasr) and 71% (Khorfakkan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Nasr and Khorfakkan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Nasr's games and 57% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Al Nasr's matches and 71% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Nasr and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 76% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr and Khorfakkan finished level at 2-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.15 xG and Khorfakkan 1.52 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Khorfakkan attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 29% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 46%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 57%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.40 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.