Al Nasr 1-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Nasr face Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Nasr host Al-Wasl FC at Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Thursday 5 February 2026 at 13:25 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Nasr — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Nasr's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Wasl FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al Nasr's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Al-Wasl FC have the better record in our head-to-head data — 7 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Al Nasr.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Al Nasr 1–2 Al-Wasl FC — a Al-Wasl FC win.
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 7 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Al Nasr in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 62% and Al-Wasl FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 60% | Al-Wasl FC 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Nasr surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Al-Wasl FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.40 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.960 / defence 1.162 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.108 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.332. Data: built from Al Nasr's last 40 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 40.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 31% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 3.18 | Draw 4.26 | Al-Wasl FC 2.22. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Al-Wasl FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Nasr 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Wasl FC 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 February 2026 at 13:25 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 31% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Al Nasr 1.40 / Al-Wasl FC 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.960 / def 1.162 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.108 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Al-Wasl FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC FAQs
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 13:25 UK time on Thursday 5 February 2026 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al Nasr 1 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 31% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (0.96) and Al-Wasl FC's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Nasr's last 40 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
31%
3.18
23%
4.26
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.12
1.72
Al-Wasl FC xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
6%
17.65
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.72 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Nasr's recent record stands at 16W 9D 15L from 40 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Al-Wasl FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 9L across 40 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.42 PPG, Al-Wasl FC on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Nasr have managed 8W 4D 7L from their last 19 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Wasl FC's away record stands at 7W 6D 6L across their last 19 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.72 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Wasl FC in 60%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al Nasr (Home) vs Al-Wasl FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC Form FAQs
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 16W 9D 15L in their last 40 games (1.42 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 20W 11D 9L in their last 40 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.47 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 5 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Nasr's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Nasr
1
Draws
7
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Nasr have won 2, Al-Wasl FC have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 February 2026: Al Nasr 1-1 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 58%, Al-Wasl FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Al Nasr and 74% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al Nasr's games and 68% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al Nasr's matches and 74% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 74% of Al-Wasl FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.40 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.96 / defence 1.16 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 31% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 45%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 60%, Al-Wasl FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.42 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.