Al Nasr 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Nasr (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Nasr face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Nasr welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Monday 11 May 2026 at 16:10 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Nasr stand at 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Al Nasr have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Nasr are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Al Nasr: 4 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, with 3 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Al Nasr 1–0 Al-Ittihad Kalba — a Al Nasr win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al Nasr and goals — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 68% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 58% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Nasr surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Al-Ittihad Kalba have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Al-Ittihad Kalba surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Al Nasr recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 2.09 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.111 / defence 1.131 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.980 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.455. Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating of 1.287 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Nasr's projected output up. Data: built from Al Nasr's last 50 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 50.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.08 | Draw 4.39 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.43. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.09 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Nasr 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 16:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Al Nasr 2.09 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.111 / def 1.131 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.980 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba FAQs
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:10 UK time on Monday 11 May 2026 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 48% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Nasr's last 50 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.39
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.70
1.61
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
4%
27.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.61 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 19W 15D 16L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 13W 17D 20L from 50 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.44 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 8D 7L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 7W 7D 10L from their last 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.32 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 66%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Nasr (Home) vs Al-Ittihad Kalba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Form FAQs
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 19W 15D 16L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.46 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 14 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Apr 2023, when Al Nasr won Al Nasr 3-0 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Nasr
4
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Nasr have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Al Nasr 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Nasr at 67%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Nasr) and 67% (Al-Ittihad Kalba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Nasr's games and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Nasr's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 79% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 2.09 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.11 / defence 1.13 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.98 / defence 1.29, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 58%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.44 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.