Al Nasr 3-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Al Nasr welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 January 2025 at 13:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Maktoum Stadium, Al Nasr have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al Nasr are significantly better at Al Maktoum Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Nasr 1.60 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Nasr register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Nasr, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 62% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 65% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.71 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.051 / defence 0.897 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.908 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.949 / away 1.477. Data: 37 Al Nasr games / 37 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 46% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.17. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 80% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 46% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Nasr 1.71 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.051 / def 0.897 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.908 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.949 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 13:05 on Friday 10 January 2025 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr 3 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 46% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (5 meetings): Al Nasr 1W | Draws 3 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.41
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.91
1.20
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
4%
22.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.20 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 17W 7D 13L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 10W 13D 14L from 37 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.59 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 17W 7D 13L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 10W 13D 14L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.89 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Al Nasr won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Nasr
4
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 61%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Nasr) and 67% (Al-Ittihad Kalba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al Nasr's games and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Nasr's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.71 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.20 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.91 / defence 0.83, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 46% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 24%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 65%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.