Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-2 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 58%, yet the head-to-head data favours Ajman — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba host Ajman at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 5 January 2025 at 15:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ajman stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Ajman's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 1.40 PPG versus Ajman's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 60% of Ajman's (from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Ajman's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Ajman have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Mar 2024, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 2–4 Ajman — a Ajman win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Ajman have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Ajman in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% and Ajman 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% | Ajman 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.14 xG and Ajman 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.110 / defence 0.942 | Ajman attack 0.809 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.501. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 36 games and Ajman's last 36.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% | Draw 24% | Ajman 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.72 | Draw 4.12 | Ajman 5.68. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad Kalba (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.14 / 1.14) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Ajman's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 home games) | Ajman 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 January 2025 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% | Draw 24% | Ajman 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.14 / Ajman 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.110 / def 0.942 | Ajman attack 0.809 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ajman xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 5 January 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 3 - 2 Ajman.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman is a Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 58% chance of winning, Ajman a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 1.11x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 36 games and Ajman's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.12
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.28
1.14
Ajman xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
12%
8.48
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
2%
48.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.14 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 9W 13D 14L from 36 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 14L across 36 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.11 PPG, Ajman on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 4W 7D 7L from their last 18 home games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 5W 7D 6L across their last 18 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.39 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Ajman
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba (Home) vs Ajman (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 9W 13D 14L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Ajman have gone 10W 12D 14L in their last 36 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.06 PPG; Ajman away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad Kalba
0
Draws
5
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 5, Ajman have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Ajman 2-3 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 67%, Ajman at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 56% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 67% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 56% of Ajman's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 72% of Ajman's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Ajman 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Ajman 3-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.14 xG and Ajman 1.14 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajman outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.11 / defence 0.94 against Ajman attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% | Draw 24% | Ajman 18%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69%, Ajman 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.11 PPG, Ajman 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.