Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-2 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba host Ajman at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 January 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajman stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 1.40 PPG versus Ajman's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ajman in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Ajman have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 2–4 with Ajman winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ajman have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Ajman in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% and Ajman 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% | Ajman 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.14 xG and Ajman 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.110 / defence 0.942 | Ajman attack 0.809 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.501. Data: 36 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 36 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% | Draw 24% | Ajman 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Ajman 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad Kalba (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Ajman 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jan 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% | Draw 24% | Ajman 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.14 / Ajman 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.110 / def 0.942 | Ajman attack 0.809 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ajman xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 5 January 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 3 - 2 Ajman.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 58% chance of winning, Ajman a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W | Draws 0 | Ajman 4W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Ajman (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 1.11x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.12
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.28
1.14
Ajman xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
12%
8.48
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
2%
48.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.14 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 9W 13D 14L from 36 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 14L across 36 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.11 PPG, Ajman on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 4W 7D 7L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 5W 7D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.39 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 9W 13D 14L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Ajman have gone 10W 12D 14L in their last 36 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.06 PPG; Ajman away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad Kalba
0
Draws
5
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 5, Ajman have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Ajman 2-3 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 67%, Ajman at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 56% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 67% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 56% of Ajman's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ajman in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Ajman 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Ajman 3-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.14 xG and Ajman 1.14 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajman outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.11 / defence 0.94 against Ajman attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% | Draw 24% | Ajman 18%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69%, Ajman 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.11 PPG, Ajman 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.