Al-Jazira 0-0 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC meet at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Jazira have posted 7W 2D 1L at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Wahda FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Al-Jazira against 1.80 for Al Wahda FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al Wahda FC, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 2–3 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Wahda FC have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Al Wahda FC half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 73% and Al Wahda FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 70% | Al Wahda FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.91 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.150 / defence 0.986 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.007 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.857 / away 1.406. Data: 37 Al-Jazira games / 37 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 48% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Al Wahda FC 3.70. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Jazira as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 60% | Al Wahda FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 48% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Jazira 1.91 / Al Wahda FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.150 / def 0.986 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.007 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.857 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al Wahda FC xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:45 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Jazira 0 - 0 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 48% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Jazira 0W | Draws 1 | Al Wahda FC 5W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 1.15x the league average against Al Wahda FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (1.01x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.00
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.31
1.40
Al Wahda FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
4%
25.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.40 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 15W 10D 12L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 18W 9D 10L from 37 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Al-Jazira against 1.70 for Al Wahda FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 8W 3D 7L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.81 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Al Wahda FC in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 games (1.49 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 18W 9D 10L in their last 37 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.72 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Jazira
3
Draws
6
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 1, Al Wahda FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Al-Jazira, 56% for Al Wahda FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Al-Jazira and 56% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Al-Jazira's games and 56% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Al-Jazira's matches and 56% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Jazira's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC finished level at 0-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.91 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.40 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Al Wahda FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 48% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 27%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 70%, Al Wahda FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.49 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.