🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Al Urooba travel to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to take on Al Bataeh. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025, 13:05 UTC.

Form Guide

Al Bataeh — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Bataeh's home record at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Urooba stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Urooba have posted 0W 0D 5L from 5 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Bataeh 0.50 PPG, Al Urooba 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

In-Play Profile

Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Al Urooba in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 73% versus Al Urooba 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 82% | Al Urooba 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 2.21 xG and Al Urooba 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.801 / defence 1.391 | Al Urooba attack 0.525 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.949 / away 1.477. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing Al Bataeh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Al Bataeh games / 11 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 61% | Draw 24% | Al Urooba 15%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Al Urooba 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Bataeh (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Bataeh are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Bataeh 80% | Al Urooba 20%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights