Al-Jazira 3-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Jazira host Khorfakkan at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Monday 16 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Al-Jazira have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Khorfakkan have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Khorfakkan's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Jazira have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Al-Jazira, 4 for Khorfakkan and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended Al-Jazira 2–3 Khorfakkan — a Khorfakkan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 51% versus Khorfakkan 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 53% | Khorfakkan 62%). Note also that Khorfakkan surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Al-Jazira recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.72 xG and Khorfakkan 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.237 / defence 0.802 | Khorfakkan attack 1.046 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.361. Data: built from Al-Jazira's last 45 games and Khorfakkan's last 45.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 51% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.97 | Draw 4.19 | Khorfakkan 3.95. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Jazira's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Jazira 30% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 51% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Al-Jazira 1.72 / Khorfakkan 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.237 / def 0.802 | Khorfakkan attack 1.046 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Khorfakkan xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 16 March 2026 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Jazira 3 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 51% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.24) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Jazira's last 45 games and Khorfakkan's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.19
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.86
1.14
Khorfakkan xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
5%
21.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.14 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 20W 11D 14L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Khorfakkan's form line: 14W 11D 20L from 45 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 22 home games (11W 3D 8L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 9W 2D 11L from their last 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.49 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 62%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Jazira (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Jazira
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 games (1.58 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.64 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 16 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Dec 2021, when Al-Jazira won Al-Jazira 4-0 Khorfakkan.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
4
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Jazira have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2026: Al-Jazira 3-1 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 36%, Khorfakkan 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al-Jazira and 73% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al-Jazira have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 59% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Jazira's matches and 73% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 77% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Khorfakkan 3-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.72 xG and Khorfakkan 1.14 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.24 / defence 0.80 against Khorfakkan attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 51% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 25%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 53%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.