Al-Jazira 4-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Jazira versus Baniyas SC in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Al-Jazira's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Baniyas SC have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Al-Jazira have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Baniyas SC managing 2 and 2 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Al-Jazira 4–0 Baniyas SC — a Al-Jazira win.
The head-to-head data gives Al-Jazira an edge — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Baniyas SC half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 57% versus Baniyas SC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 57% | Baniyas SC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.79 xG and Baniyas SC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.242 / defence 1.015 | Baniyas SC attack 0.926 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.444. Data: built from Al-Jazira's last 51 games and Baniyas SC's last 51.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.16 | Draw 3.87 | Baniyas SC 3.58. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Jazira 5 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Jazira's last 10 home games and Baniyas SC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Jazira 50% (last 10 home games) | Baniyas SC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Al-Jazira 1.79 / Baniyas SC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.242 / def 1.015 | Baniyas SC attack 0.926 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Baniyas SC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC FAQs
What time does Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Jazira 4 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 46% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.24) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.93x) against Al-Jazira's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Al-Jazira's last 51 games and Baniyas SC's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.87
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.14
1.36
Baniyas SC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
5%
21.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.36 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 22W 12D 17L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Baniyas SC's form line: 14W 12D 25L from 51 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.68 PPG from their last 25 home games (13W 3D 9L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 9W 2D 14L from their last 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.14 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al-Jazira (Home) vs Baniyas SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Jazira
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.68 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Jazira have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Jazira won Baniyas SC 0-4 Al-Jazira on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Jazira have won 6, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Al-Jazira 4-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 44%, Baniyas SC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Jazira) and 52% (Baniyas SC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Jazira have failed to score in 28% of games; Baniyas SC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 44% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Jazira's matches and 52% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 88% of Baniyas SC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Baniyas SC 4-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.79 xG and Baniyas SC 1.36 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.24 / defence 1.01 against Baniyas SC attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 28%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 57%, Baniyas SC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.