🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Al-Jazira.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al-Jazira to Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 13:05 UTC.

Form Guide

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record at Rashid Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Jazira in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Al-Jazira, with 1 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Al-Jazira trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 68% and Al-Jazira 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 81% | Al-Jazira 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.89 xG and Al-Jazira 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.189 / defence 0.753 | Al-Jazira attack 1.195 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.868 / away 1.379. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 38 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Jazira 23%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Jazira 4.35. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% | Al-Jazira 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights