Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 53%, yet in-form Dibba Al-Fujairah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Ittihad Kalba — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 4L across their last 7 road games (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dibba Al-Fujairah — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 2–1 Dibba Al-Fujairah — a Al-Ittihad Kalba win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% and Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.70 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.922 / defence 1.156 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.595 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.511. Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence rating of 1.421 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output up. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating of 0.595 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 42 games and Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 15.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.89 | Draw 4.16 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.32. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dibba Al-Fujairah (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 7 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% (last 10 home games) | Dibba Al-Fujairah 43% (last 7 away games).

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