Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Al-Dhafra.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Al-Dhafra to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Thursday 26 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Ittihad Kalba — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Dhafra have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Dhafra's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across their last 8 road games (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Al-Ittihad Kalba) versus 0.50 (Al-Dhafra). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 62% of Al-Dhafra's (from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Al-Dhafra's last 8 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1 for Al-Dhafra and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 0–3 Al-Dhafra — a Al-Dhafra win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% versus Al-Dhafra 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% | Al-Dhafra 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.68 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.928 / defence 1.164 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.833 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.497. Al-Dhafra's defence rating of 1.352 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 43 games and Al-Dhafra's last 17.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Dhafra 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.32 | Draw 4.24 | Al-Dhafra 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Al-Dhafra's last 8 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Dhafra 62% (last 8 away games).

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