Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Ajman – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Ajman.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ittihad Kalba host Ajman at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Ittihad Kalba — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ajman stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Ajman's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 0.90 PPG versus Ajman's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 4, Ajman 4, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2026, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 1–0 Ajman — a Al-Ittihad Kalba win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Ajman in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% versus Ajman 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Ajman 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 xG and Ajman 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.948 / defence 1.121 | Ajman attack 0.747 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.375. Ajman's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 40 games and Ajman's last 40.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 27% | Ajman 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.45 | Draw 3.71 | Ajman 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Ajman's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% (last 10 home games) | Ajman 20% (last 10 away games).

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