Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al Ain (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Al Ain.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba host Al Ain at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 27 January 2026 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this season.
Al Ain — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Ain are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al Ain, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Al Ain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Ain have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Ain in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% versus Al Ain 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% | Al Ain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.15 xG and Al Ain 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.928 / defence 1.020 | Al Ain attack 1.225 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.325. Al Ain have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 39 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 27% | Draw 24% | Al Ain 49%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Al Ain 2.04. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Ain as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Ain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Al Ain 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jan 2026, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 27% | Draw 24% | Al Ain 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.15 / Al Ain 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.928 / def 1.020 | Al Ain attack 1.225 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Al Ain xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain kicked off at 13:15 on Tuesday 27 January 2026 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 3 Al Ain.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 27% chance of winning, Al Ain a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W | Draws 2 | Al Ain 5W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Al Ain (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al Ain's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Ain's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
27%
3.77
24%
4.11
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.81
1.66
Al Ain xG
3.77
27%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
19.74
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.66 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 12W 12D 15L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain's form line: 21W 12D 6L from 39 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
On the road, Al Ain have gone 9W 6D 4L from 19 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.13 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Al Ain in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 21W 12D 6L in their last 39 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.16 PPG; Al Ain away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al Ain in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Ain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Ain won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al Ain specifically: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
2
Draws
7
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, Al Ain have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 58%, Al Ain 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 74% for Al Ain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 32%; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Ain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 63% of Al Ain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 74% of Al Ain's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Ain cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.15 xG and Al Ain 1.66 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Ain outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Al Ain attack 1.23 / defence 0.90, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 27% | Draw 24% | Al Ain 49%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 59%, Al Ain 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Ain's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.