Al Bataeh 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Bataeh face Al-Ittihad Kalba.

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Analysis

Al-Ittihad Kalba make the trip to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to face Al Bataeh in Pro League (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:50 UK time.

Form

Al Bataeh (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al Bataeh at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Al Bataeh, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Al Bataeh 3–1 Al-Ittihad Kalba — a Al Bataeh win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 59% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 50% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.32 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.729 / defence 1.035 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.896 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.361. Al Bataeh's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating of 1.287 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Bataeh's projected output up. Data: built from Al Bataeh's last 46 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 46.

Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 38% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.64 | Draw 3.74 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Bataeh at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Bataeh 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 away games).

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