Al Ain 1-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Ain at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Ain vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Ain and Al Nasr meet at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al Ain's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Al Ain have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Al Nasr have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al Nasr have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Al Ain's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Al Nasr's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Al Ain, 3 for Al Nasr and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Dec 2025, ended Al Ain 2–2 Al Nasr — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Ain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Ain 58% and Al Nasr 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Ain 66% | Al Nasr 58%). Note also that Al Nasr surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Al Ain recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 1.59 xG and Al Nasr 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.230 / defence 0.750 | Al Nasr attack 0.937 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.453. Al Ain have a tight defence (rating 0.750), which is pulling Al Nasr's projected output down. Data: built from Al Ain's last 41 games and Al Nasr's last 41.
Result probabilities: Al Ain 51% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 1.98 | Draw 3.99 | Al Nasr 4.10. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Ain as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Ain if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Ain 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Nasr 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 16 | Venue: Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 51% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Al Ain 1.59 / Al Nasr 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.230 / def 0.750 | Al Nasr attack 0.937 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Al Nasr xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Ain vs Al Nasr FAQs
What time does Al Ain vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al Ain vs Al Nasr kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Al Nasr?
Al Ain 1 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Al Ain vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Al Nasr part of?
Al Ain vs Al Nasr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 16) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 51% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Ain and Al Nasr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Ain vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Ain's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.94x) against Al Ain's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Al Ain's last 41 games and Al Nasr's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.99
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Al Ain xG
Total xG
2.61
1.02
Al Nasr xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
5%
20.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Ain vs Al Nasr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.02 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Ain come into this having played 41 games, going 23W 12D 6L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Al Nasr sit at 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Al Ain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Ain's home form reads 12W 6D 2L across their last 20 home games, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Nasr have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 20 away games (7W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Ain are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.54 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr in 63%.
Defensively: Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
Al Ain (Home) vs Al Nasr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Ain
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Al Ain vs Al Nasr Form FAQs
What form are Al Ain and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 23W 12D 6L in their last 41 games (1.98 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Ain's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 2.10 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Al Ain or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al Ain and Al Nasr, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won Al Ain 4-1 Al Nasr on 21 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Ain have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Ain
2
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Ain vs Al Nasr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al Nasr?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Ain have won 5, Al Nasr have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Al Nasr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Al Ain 2-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Al Nasr?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Ain 55%, Al Nasr 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Ain and 70% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Ain keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Ain vs Al Nasr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Ain and Al Nasr matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al Ain's games and 65% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Ain and Al Nasr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Ain's matches and 70% of Al Nasr's.
Do Al Ain and Al Nasr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al Ain's recent matches and 70% of Al Nasr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Ain and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain and Al Nasr finished level at 1-1 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.59 xG and Al Nasr 1.02 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.23 / defence 0.75 against Al Nasr attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 51% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 24%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 66%, Al Nasr 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Nasr's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Nasr (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.