Al Ain 1-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Ain at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Ain and Al-Dhafra meet at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Al Ain (all games): 5W 3D 0L across 8 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.25 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.12 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 games at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Dhafra have collected 0.62 PPG across 8 Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Dhafra have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al Ain. A 1.63 PPG lead over Al-Dhafra (2.25 vs 0.62) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Al Ain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Dhafra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Ain 62% and Al-Dhafra 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Ain 38% | Al-Dhafra 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 1.74 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.223 / defence 0.980 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.875 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.283. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Al Ain's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Al Ain games / 8 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Ain 50% | Draw 29% | Al-Dhafra 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Dhafra 4.55. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Ain are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Ain if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Al Ain 67% | Al-Dhafra 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 50% | Draw 29% | Al-Dhafra 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Ain 1.74 / Al-Dhafra 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.223 / def 0.980 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.875 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Dhafra xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra?
Al Ain 1 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 50% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Ain and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al-Dhafra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Ain and Al-Dhafra in?
Al Ain (all comps): 5W-3D-0L in 8 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Ain's attack at 1.22x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.88x) against Al Ain's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.51
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al Ain xG
Total xG
2.84
1.10
Al-Dhafra xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
4%
26.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.10 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Al Ain have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 5W 3D 0L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra's form line: 1W 2D 5L from 8 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 1.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Dhafra.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L).
On the road, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.62 PPG overall record — Al-Dhafra travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Ain are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.88 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Ain have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Dhafra in 62%.
Defensively: Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 5W 3D 0L in their last 8 games (2.25 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Al Ain's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al Ain or Al-Dhafra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Dhafra in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Ain have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 7-0 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Ain have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al Ain
0
Draws
0
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 6, Al-Dhafra have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Ain 5-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Al-Dhafra?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al Ain, 67% for Al-Dhafra — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al Ain) and 67% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Al Ain keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Dhafra in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Al-Dhafra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Ain's games and 67% of Al-Dhafra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Ain's recent games and 67% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Ain and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Ain edge out Al-Dhafra 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Dhafra 1-0 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.74 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.10 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.22 / defence 0.98 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.88 / defence 1.33, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 50% | Draw 29% | Al-Dhafra 22%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 38%, Al-Dhafra 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.