Sharjah FC 0-3 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 November 2021, 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.62 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.62 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 0D 1L this season (4 games, 2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.62 — Sharjah FC are significantly better at Sharjah Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 3W 5D 0L from 8 Pro League matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 0.62. Defensively, 0.62 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 0L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sharjah FC 1.62 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.75 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 50% versus Al Wahda FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 62% | Al Wahda FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.00 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.999 / defence 1.258 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.026 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.291. Data: 8 Sharjah FC games / 8 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 21% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Al Wahda FC 1.96. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 50% | Al Wahda FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Nov 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 21% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Sharjah FC 1.00 / Al Wahda FC 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.999 / def 1.258 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.026 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Al Wahda FC xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 16:15 on Wednesday 3 November 2021 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Sharjah FC 0 - 3 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 21% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 3W-5D-0L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.62 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
21%
4.78
28%
3.56
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.67
Al Wahda FC xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
4%
25.29
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.67 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 4W 1D 3L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 3W 5D 0L from 8 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.62 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Sharjah FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.75 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC in 62%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 3W 5D 0L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al Wahda FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
4
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-2 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 50%, Al Wahda FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Sharjah FC) and 25% (Al Wahda FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sharjah FC's games and 75% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 25% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Wahda FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sharjah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Sharjah FC 0-3 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.00 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.67 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.26 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 21% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 51%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 62%, Al Wahda FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.62 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.