Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Ain at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai host Al Ain at Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 4W 2D 1L from 7 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 0.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 games at Rashid Stadium this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are significantly better at Rashid Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Ain stand at 5W 2D 0L from 7 Pro League matches — 2.43 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.29 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al Ain have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Ain's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 2.00 PPG versus Al Ain's 2.43. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al Ain trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% versus Al Ain 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 29% | Al Ain 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.48 xG and Al Ain 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.280 / defence 1.207 | Al Ain attack 1.106 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.324. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 7 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 31% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 43%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Al Ain 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Ain as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Ain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 67% | Al Ain 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 31% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.48 / Al Ain 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.280 / def 1.207 | Al Ain attack 1.106 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Al Ain xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 1 Al Ain.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 31% chance of winning, Al Ain a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 0.86 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Al Ain (all comps): 5W-2D-0L in 7 | 2.43 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack at 1.28x the league average against Al Ain's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Ain's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
31%
3.23
26%
3.84
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.25
1.77
Al Ain xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
5%
18.89
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.77 for Al Ain, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 2D 1L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Ain's form line: 5W 2D 0L from 7 games, 2.43 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al Ain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Ain have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.29 scored and 0.86 conceded. Al Ain's attacking output running into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Al Ain in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Al Ain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al Ain away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 3.00 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al Ain in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Ain go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Al Ain won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al Ain specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
3
Draws
4
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, Al Ain have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Al Ain 3-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 67%, Al Ain 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 33% (Al Ain).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Ain in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al Ain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 33% of Al Ain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 33% of Al Ain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Ain finished level at 1-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.48 xG and Al Ain 1.77 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.28 / defence 1.21 against Al Ain attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 31% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 43%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 29%, Al Ain 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Ain's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.