Al-Dhafra 2-2 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Dhafra host Al-Wasl FC at Al Dhafra Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Dhafra stand at 1W 2D 6L from 9 Pro League matches — 0.56 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's home record at Al Dhafra Stadium: 0W 1D 3L from 4 Pro League appearances (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 3W 3D 3L from 9 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC away from home this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Wasl FC — 0.77 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.33 vs 0.56). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Al-Dhafra trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al-Wasl FC trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 56% versus Al-Wasl FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Dhafra 44% | Al-Wasl FC 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.98 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.847 / defence 1.269 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.810 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.028 / away 1.394. Data: 9 Al-Dhafra games / 9 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 24% | Draw 31% | Al-Wasl FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Wasl FC 2.22. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Dhafra 75% | Al-Wasl FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 24% | Draw 31% | Al-Wasl FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Dhafra 0.98 / Al-Wasl FC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.847 / def 1.269 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.810 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.028 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al-Wasl FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Dhafra 2 - 2 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 24% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-2D-6L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.11 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Dhafra's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al-Wasl FC's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
24%
4.24
31%
3.20
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.41
1.43
Al-Wasl FC xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
6%
17.75
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.43 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Dhafra's recent record stands at 1W 2D 6L from 9 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 3L across 9 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Wasl FC by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Dhafra heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Dhafra have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Wasl FC's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.33 PPG overall record — Al-Wasl FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 games (0.56 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.25 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Al-Wasl FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
1
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 3-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 75%, Al-Wasl FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Dhafra) and 25% (Al-Wasl FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Dhafra's games and 50% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 25% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra and Al-Wasl FC finished level at 2-2 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.98 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Dhafra beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 24% | Draw 31% | Al-Wasl FC 45%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 44%, Al-Wasl FC 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.