Ajman 2-2 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Ajman welcome Sharjah FC to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 May 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Ajman Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ajman Stadium this season.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ajman carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ajman, 3 for Sharjah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sharjah FC trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 59% versus Sharjah FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 55% | Sharjah FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.47 xG and Sharjah FC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.959 / defence 0.951 | Sharjah FC attack 1.061 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.712. Data: 49 Ajman games / 50 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 32% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Sharjah FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Sharjah FC lead the H2H ledger, but Ajman carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajman (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 40% | Sharjah FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 32% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Ajman 1.47 / Sharjah FC 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.959 / def 0.951 | Sharjah FC attack 1.061 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.712 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Sharjah FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Ajman vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:15 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Ajman 2 - 2 Sharjah FC.
Where is Ajman vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Sharjah FC part of?
Ajman vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 32% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ajman and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
Record (5 meetings): Ajman 1W | Draws 1 | Sharjah FC 3W.
What form are Ajman and Sharjah FC in?
Ajman (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Sharjah FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ajman's attack rating (0.96) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
32%
3.09
24%
4.12
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.20
1.73
Sharjah FC xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
6%
17.41
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Ajman and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ajman and 1.73 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajman's recent record stands at 20W 13D 16L from 49 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 11L across 49 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.49 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 10W 5D 9L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 12W 7D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajman are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.80 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 20W 13D 16L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 20W 18D 11L in their last 49 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.46 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Ajman or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ajman have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ajman
2
Draws
5
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 3, Sharjah FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 58%, Sharjah FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ajman) and 46% (Sharjah FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ajman's games and 54% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ajman's recent games and 46% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Ajman and Sharjah FC drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.47 xG and Sharjah FC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Sharjah FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 32% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 43%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 55%, Sharjah FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.49 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.