Emirates Club 2-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Nasr (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Emirates Club face Al Nasr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Al Nasr travel to Emirates Club Stadium to take on Emirates Club. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emirates Club stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emirates Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Emirates Club Stadium, Emirates Club have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Nasr have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Nasr are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Emirates Club register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Nasr in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al Nasr, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Emirates Club.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Al Nasr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Nasr have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Emirates Club trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Nasr trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emirates Club 59% versus Al Nasr 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emirates Club 59% | Al Nasr 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emirates Club 1.09 xG and Al Nasr 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emirates Club attack 0.791 / defence 1.100 | Al Nasr attack 1.026 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.703. Emirates Club's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Emirates Club games / 50 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emirates Club 20% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 56%. Fair-value odds: Emirates Club 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al Nasr 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al Nasr (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emirates Club 70% | Al Nasr 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emirates Club vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Emirates Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emirates Club 20% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Emirates Club 1.09 / Al Nasr 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Emirates Club attack 0.791 / def 1.100 | Al Nasr attack 1.026 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.703 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Emirates Club xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Al Nasr xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emirates Club vs Al Nasr kick off?
Emirates Club vs Al Nasr kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Emirates Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Emirates Club vs Al Nasr?
Emirates Club 2 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Emirates Club vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Club Stadium.
What competition is Emirates Club vs Al Nasr part of?
Emirates Club vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Emirates Club vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Emirates Club a 20% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emirates Club vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Emirates Club and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Emirates Club vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emirates Club and Al Nasr?
Record (3 meetings): Emirates Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al Nasr 3W.
What form are Emirates Club and Al Nasr in?
Emirates Club (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emirates Club's attack rating (0.79) and Al Nasr's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Emirates Club's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
20%
4.93
24%
4.22
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Emirates Club xG
Total xG
3.01
1.92
Al Nasr xG
4.93
20%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
15%
6.83
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
3%
33.68
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emirates Club vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Emirates Club and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Emirates Club and 1.92 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Emirates Club vs Al Nasr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Emirates Club have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 3W 5D 14L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Emirates Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr's form line: 11W 6D 5L from 22 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Emirates Club.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emirates Club have posted 0.50 PPG from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emirates Club are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.59 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emirates Club
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emirates Club and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Emirates Club have gone 3W 5D 14L in their last 22 games (0.64 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emirates Club at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emirates Club at home: 0.50 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Al Nasr won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emirates Club's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Emirates Club
0
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emirates Club and Al Nasr?
From 4 meetings on record, Emirates Club have won 1, Al Nasr have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emirates Club and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2024, when Emirates Club 2-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Emirates Club and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emirates Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Emirates Club at 70%, Al Nasr at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Emirates Club and 70% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emirates Club have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Nasr in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emirates Club home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emirates Club play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Emirates Club's games and 60% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emirates Club vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Emirates Club's matches and 70% of Al Nasr's.
Do Emirates Club and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Emirates Club have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emirates Club defy the odds to beat Al Nasr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emirates Club beat Al Nasr 2-1 at Emirates Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emirates Club 1.09 xG and Al Nasr 1.92 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Emirates Club beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Nasr landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emirates Club attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Al Nasr attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emirates Club 20% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 56%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Emirates Club win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emirates Club 59%, Al Nasr 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emirates Club's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with Emirates Club winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Emirates Club (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.