Sharjah FC 3-2 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 June 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 7D 0L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sharjah FC 1.30 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sharjah FC, 2 for Al Wahda FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 55% versus Al Wahda FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 51% | Al Wahda FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.10 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.952 / defence 0.906 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.025 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.708. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Sharjah FC games / 51 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 24% | Draw 30% | Al Wahda FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Al Wahda FC 2.17. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 70% | Al Wahda FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 24% | Draw 30% | Al Wahda FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Sharjah FC 1.10 / Al Wahda FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.952 / def 0.906 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.025 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.708 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al Wahda FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Sharjah FC 3 - 2 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 24% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
Record (5 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 2 | Al Wahda FC 2W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
24%
4.19
30%
3.33
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.59
Al Wahda FC xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
5%
20.48
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.59 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 21W 19D 11L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 27W 13D 11L from 51 games, 1.84 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.61 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (8W 11D 6L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 16W 4D 5L from 25 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.78 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 21W 19D 11L in their last 51 games (1.61 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 27W 13D 11L in their last 51 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al Wahda FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
4
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-2 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 56%, Al Wahda FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sharjah FC) and 52% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 52% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 52% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sharjah FC defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Wahda FC 3-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.10 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.59 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.76, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 24% | Draw 30% | Al Wahda FC 46%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Sharjah FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 51%, Al Wahda FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.61 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.