Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Baniyas SC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 May 2024, 14:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baniyas SC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 PPG, Baniyas SC 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Baniyas SC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 2 for Baniyas SC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Baniyas SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 63% and Baniyas SC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65% | Baniyas SC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.54 xG and Baniyas SC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.949 / defence 1.188 | Baniyas SC attack 0.709 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.687. Data: 50 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 49 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 39% | Draw 27% | Baniyas SC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Baniyas SC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% | Baniyas SC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 39% | Draw 27% | Baniyas SC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.54 / Baniyas SC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.949 / def 1.188 | Baniyas SC attack 0.709 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.687 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Baniyas SC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 14:15 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 0 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 39% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W | Draws 1 | Baniyas SC 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.71
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.96
1.42
Baniyas SC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.42 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 15W 12D 22L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 13W 8D 28L from 49 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.16 PPG, Baniyas SC on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 6W 3D 15L from 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.33 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Baniyas SC in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 15W 12D 22L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 13W 8D 28L in their last 49 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.08 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
3
Draws
4
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Baniyas SC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%, Baniyas SC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 71% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 62% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 71% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad Kalba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.54 xG and Baniyas SC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Baniyas SC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Baniyas SC attack 0.71 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 39% | Draw 27% | Baniyas SC 34%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%, Baniyas SC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.16 PPG, Baniyas SC 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.