Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 9 May 2027
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
The model shortlists 13 fixtures on Sunday 9 May 2027. Villarreal vs Celta Vigo tops the list at 68% in the La Liga. The shortlist runs from 68% down to 56%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
La Liga supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
La Liga · Spain
68%
La Liga · Spain
66%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
61%
La Liga · Spain
61%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
59%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
58%
2. Bundesliga · Germany
57%
Süper Lig · Turkey
57%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
57%
2. Bundesliga · Germany
56%
Süper Lig · Turkey
56%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
56%
Serie A · Italy
56%
Showing top 13 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Under 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 9 May 2027?
13 fixtures met the criteria, led by Villarreal vs Celta Vigo at 68% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.