Famalicao vs Casa Pia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao plays host to Famalicao versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Famalicao's home record at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao than their overall form suggests.
Casa Pia have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Famalicao, 0.80 for Casa Pia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Famalicao 4W, Casa Pia 2W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 37% versus Casa Pia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Famalicao 37% | Casa Pia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.25 xG and Casa Pia 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.856 / defence 0.887 | Casa Pia attack 0.685 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.260. Data: 38 Famalicao games / 38 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 48% | Draw 30% | Casa Pia 23%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Casa Pia 4.35. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Casa Pia 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 48% | Draw 30% | Casa Pia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Famalicao 1.25 / Casa Pia 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.856 / def 0.887 | Casa Pia attack 0.685 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Casa Pia xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Casa Pia kick off?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Where is Famalicao vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Casa Pia part of?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 48% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Famalicao and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Record (8 meetings): Famalicao 4W | Draws 2 | Casa Pia 2W.
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.86x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.69x) against Famalicao's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.39
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.01
0.77
Casa Pia xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.77 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 15W 13D 10L from 38 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 13D 19L across 38 games — 0.82 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Famalicao by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Casa Pia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 9W 5D 5L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 3W 4D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.82 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Casa Pia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 15W 13D 10L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 6W 13D 19L in their last 38 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Casa Pia away?
Famalicao's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.68 PPG; Casa Pia away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Famalicao
2
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 4, Casa Pia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 37% (Famalicao) and 32% (Casa Pia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Famalicao) and 53% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Casa Pia in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Famalicao's recent matches and 32% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Famalicao's recent games and 53% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.