Famalicao vs Casa Pia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao plays host to Famalicao versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao than their overall form suggests.
Casa Pia have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Famalicao, 0.80 for Casa Pia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Famalicao 4W, Casa Pia 2W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 40% versus Casa Pia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 40% | Casa Pia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.13 xG and Casa Pia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.866 / defence 1.079 | Casa Pia attack 0.764 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.364. Data: 42 Famalicao games / 42 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 36% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 35%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Casa Pia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 50% | Casa Pia 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 36% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Famalicao 1.13 / Casa Pia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.866 / def 1.079 | Casa Pia attack 0.764 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Casa Pia xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Casa Pia kick off?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Where is Famalicao vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Casa Pia part of?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 36% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Famalicao and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Record (8 meetings): Famalicao 4W | Draws 2 | Casa Pia 2W.
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.87x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.76x) against Famalicao's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.48
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.25
1.12
Casa Pia xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.12 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 16W 15D 11L from 42 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 7W 14D 21L across 42 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Famalicao by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Casa Pia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 9W 6D 6L from 21 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.81 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 16W 15D 11L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 7W 14D 21L in their last 42 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Casa Pia away?
Famalicao's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.57 PPG; Casa Pia away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Famalicao
2
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 4, Casa Pia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 43%, Casa Pia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Famalicao) and 52% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Casa Pia in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Famalicao's recent matches and 33% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Famalicao's recent games and 52% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.