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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 12 May 2024

Thu 9 Fri 10 Sat 11 Sun 12 Mon 13 Tue 14 Wed 15

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Sunday 12 May 2024. Fakel vs Ural led the list at 76% in the Premier League. The shortlist runs from 76% down to 61%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

The shortlist spans ten different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Russia 76%

✓ Under 2.5 76% ✓ BTTS No 68%

La Liga · Spain 75%

✓ Under 2.5 75% ✓ BTTS No 70% ✓ Valencia Clean Sheet 54%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 75%

✓ Under 2.5 75% ✓ BTTS No 67%

K League 1 · South-Korea 73%

✓ Under 2.5 73% BTTS No 67%

Superettan · Sweden 72%

Under 2.5 72% BTTS No 68% IK brage Clean Sheet 55%

Serie A · Brazil 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 62%

Veikkausliiga · Finland 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 58%

Eliteserien · Norway 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 61%

Czech Liga · Czech-Republic 67%

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 58%

#10

Süper Lig · Turkey 67%

Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#11

Thai League 1 · Thailand 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 59%

#12

Serie A · Italy 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#13

Bundesliga · Austria 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 56%

#14

Bundesliga · Austria 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 56%

#15

Superettan · Sweden 63%

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 61%

#16

La Liga · Spain 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#17

Ekstraklasa · Poland 62%

Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 54%

#18

Primera División · Chile 62%

Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 56%

#19

Eliteserien · Norway 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 61%

#20

Ligue 1 · France 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 57%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 12 May 2024?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Fakel vs Ural at 76% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.