Lask Linz 2-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Sturm Graz at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sturm Graz — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sturm Graz's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 1.70 PPG versus Sturm Graz's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Lask Linz have won 1, Sturm Graz 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 53% versus Sturm Graz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 42% | Sturm Graz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.01 xG and Sturm Graz 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.894 / defence 0.962 | Sturm Graz attack 1.143 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 31% | Draw 33% | Sturm Graz 36%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Sturm Graz 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 40% | Sturm Graz 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 31% | Draw 33% | Sturm Graz 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Lask Linz 1.01 / Sturm Graz 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.894 / def 0.962 | Sturm Graz attack 1.143 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sturm Graz xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Lask Linz 2 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 31% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lask Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Record (3 meetings): Lask Linz 1W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 2W.
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.89x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
31%
3.22
33%
3.08
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.12
1.11
Sturm Graz xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.11 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 28W 21D 13L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Sturm Graz's form line: 38W 15D 9L from 62 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.69 PPG, Sturm Graz on 2.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.94 PPG from 31 outings (18W 6D 7L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 17W 10D 4L from 31 away games — 1.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.76 scored and 0.81 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Current Season
Sturm Graz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 28W 21D 13L in their last 62 games (1.69 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 38W 15D 9L in their last 62 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.94 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lask Linz
3
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 52%, Sturm Graz 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lask Linz) and 52% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lask Linz's games and 64% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lask Linz's recent games and 52% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz and Sturm Graz finished level at 2-2 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.01 xG and Sturm Graz 1.11 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Sturm Graz attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 31% | Draw 33% | Sturm Graz 36%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 42%, Sturm Graz 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.69 PPG, Sturm Graz 2.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.