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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability β€” Saturday 16 October 2021

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer β€” 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Saturday 16 October 2021. Bristol City vs Bournemouth led the list at 84% in the Championship. The shortlist runs from 84% down to 66%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

League Two supplies four of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 13 landed the under 2.5 goals market — 65%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only β€” not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

#1 Championship Β· England 84%
Bristol City
0 : 2 FT
Bournemouth
Win 23%
Draw 42%
Win 36%
✓ Under 2.5 84% ✓ BTTS No 75% ✓ Bournemouth Clean Sheet 56%
#2 League Two Β· England 84%
Carlisle
0 : 1 FT
Tranmere
Win 33%
Draw 43%
Win 23%
✓ Under 2.5 84% ✓ BTTS No 73% Carlisle Clean Sheet 55%
#3 Veikkausliiga Β· Finland 81%
Ilves
2 : 3 FT
HJK Helsinki
Win 30%
Draw 37%
Win 33%
Under 2.5 81% BTTS No 72%
#4 Super League 1 Β· Greece 80%
Apollon Smirnis
0 : 1 FT
Asteras Tripolis
Win 25%
Draw 44%
Win 31%
✓ Under 2.5 80% ✓ BTTS No 68%
#5 League Two Β· England 74%
Salford City
2 : 0 FT
Hartlepool
βœ“ Win 48%
Draw 36%
Win 16%
✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 67% ✓ Salford City Clean Sheet 55%
#6 League Two Β· England 74%
Oldham
3 : 0 FT
Stevenage
Win 22%
Draw 38%
Win 40%
Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 64%
#7 Ligue 2 Β· France 73%
Caen
2 : 2 FT
Le Havre
Win 25%
Draw 37%
Win 38%
Under 2.5 73% BTTS No 63%
#8 Serie B Β· Italy 72%
Cosenza
1 : 1 FT
Frosinone
Win 33%
βœ“ Draw 35%
Win 32%
✓ Under 2.5 72% BTTS No 63%
#9 Championship Β· England 72%
Preston
0 : 0 FT
Derby
Win 41%
Draw 35%
Win 24%
✓ Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 63%
#10 League Two Β· England 72%
Northampton
2 : 0 FT
Mansfield Town
Win 35%
Draw 38%
Win 28%
✓ Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 61%
#11 La Liga Β· Spain 71%
Real Sociedad
1 : 0 FT
Mallorca
βœ“ Win 52%
Draw 32%
Win 16%
✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 66% ✓ Real Sociedad Clean Sheet 55%
#12 Ligue 2 Β· France 71%
Quevilly
0 : 3 FT
Niort
Win 38%
Draw 36%
Win 26%
Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 61%
#13 Premier League Β· Russia 69%
Rubin
2 : 2 FT
Lokomotiv
Win 37%
Draw 31%
Win 32%
Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 61%
#14 League One Β· England 69%
Doncaster
0 : 2 FT
Wycombe
Win 35%
Draw 31%
Win 34%
✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 61%
#15 Ligue 2 Β· France 69%
Bastia
0 : 0 FT
Grenoble
Win 49%
Draw 34%
Win 17%
✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 62%
#16 Premier League Β· England 68%
Southampton
1 : 0 FT
Leeds
βœ“ Win 38%
Draw 31%
Win 31%
✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 60%
#17 Ligue 2 Β· France 67%
Rodez
0 : 1 FT
Sochaux
Win 23%
Draw 35%
βœ“ Win 42%
✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 59%
#18 Veikkausliiga Β· Finland 67%
AC Oulu
1 : 2 FT
Mariehamn
Win 31%
Draw 31%
βœ“ Win 38%
Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 60%
#19 Süper Lig Β· Turkey 66%
Giresunspor
2 : 0 FT
Rizespor
βœ“ Win 43%
Draw 30%
Win 27%
✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 60%
#20 Premier League Β· England 66%
Aston Villa
2 : 3 FT
Wolves
Win 43%
Draw 30%
Win 28%
Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 60%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Under 2.5 Goals β€” common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 16 October 2021?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Bristol City vs Bournemouth at 84% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.