Real Sociedad 1-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Sociedad vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Sociedad and Mallorca meet at Reale Arena in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Real Sociedad have collected 2.12 PPG across 8 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Reale Arena this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 4 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Reale Arena.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games (1.38 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Real Sociedad's 2.12 PPG return is 0.74 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.38 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Real Sociedad — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Mallorca — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 38% versus Mallorca 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Sociedad 25% | Mallorca 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.28 xG and Mallorca 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.782 / defence 0.846 | Mallorca attack 0.770 / defence 1.604. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 0.913. Real Sociedad's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.604 — this is suppressing Real Sociedad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Real Sociedad games / 8 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 52% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 16%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 1.92 | Draw 3.12 | Mallorca 6.25. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Mallorca's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Real Sociedad 0% | Mallorca 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 52% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Real Sociedad 1.28 / Mallorca 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.782 / def 0.846 | Mallorca attack 0.770 / def 1.604 | league avg home 1.023 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Mallorca xG
34%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Mallorca kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Mallorca part of?
Real Sociedad vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 52% chance of winning, Mallorca a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Real Sociedad and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Mallorca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Sociedad and Mallorca in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Real Sociedad's attack rating (0.78) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.77x) against Real Sociedad's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
52%
1.93
32%
3.08
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
1.88
0.59
Mallorca xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
4%
22.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 11.7 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.59 for Mallorca, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Sociedad's recent record stands at 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Sociedad by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Real Sociedad have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.88 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; Mallorca in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Mallorca away?
Real Sociedad's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 2.33 PPG; Mallorca away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Mallorca in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Real Sociedad have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Sociedad have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Real Sociedad
1
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 7, Mallorca have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mallorca 0-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Mallorca?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Real Sociedad) and 33% (Mallorca) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Real Sociedad and 33% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Mallorca in 33%; Real Sociedad have failed to score in 33% of games; Mallorca in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 33% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 33% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Mallorca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Mallorca 1-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.28 xG and Mallorca 0.59 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.78 / defence 0.85 against Mallorca attack 0.77 / defence 1.60, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 52% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 16%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 25%, Mallorca 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.