Caen 2-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Le Havre travel to Stade Michel d'Ornano to take on Caen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 4L across 6 games at Stade Michel d'Ornano this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Le Havre have posted 2W 3D 0L from 5 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 5 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Le Havre are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Caen in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 46% versus Le Havre 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Caen 46% | Le Havre 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 0.77 xG and Le Havre 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.970 / defence 1.313 | Le Havre attack 0.764 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 0.927 / away 1.019. Data: 11 Caen games / 11 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 25% | Draw 37% | Le Havre 38%. Fair-value odds: Caen 4.00 | Draw 2.70 | Le Havre 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Caen 50% | Le Havre 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 25% | Draw 37% | Le Havre 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Caen 0.77 / Le Havre 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.970 / def 1.313 | Le Havre attack 0.764 / def 0.859 | league avg home 0.927 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Le Havre xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Le Havre kick off?
Caen vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Le Havre?
Caen 2 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Caen vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Le Havre part of?
Caen vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 25% chance of winning, Le Havre a 38% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Caen and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Caen and Le Havre in?
Caen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Le Havre (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Caen's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
25%
4.08
37%
2.68
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Caen xG
Total xG
1.79
1.02
Le Havre xG
4.08
25%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 17.0 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Caen and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Caen and 1.02 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Caen come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 2D 5L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (5W 5D 1L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Caen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Caen's home form reads 1W 0D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.27 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Caen are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.00 scored and 0.45 conceded.
Defensively: Caen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Le Havre in 64% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 0.60 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Caen or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Le Havre in 64%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Caen's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Caen
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Caen have won 1, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Caen 1-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Le Havre tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 60%, Le Havre 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 60% for Caen and 0% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 80%; Le Havre in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Caen's recent matches and 20% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Caen's recent games and 0% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Le Havre tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen and Le Havre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen and Le Havre finished level at 2-2 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 0.77 xG and Le Havre 1.02 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.97 / defence 1.31 against Le Havre attack 0.76 / defence 0.86, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 25% | Draw 37% | Le Havre 38%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 46%, Le Havre 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.