Rodez 0-1 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sochaux make the trip to Stade Paul Lignon to face Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 1W 3D 1L from 5 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sochaux have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sochaux are 0.70 PPG clear of Rodez in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sochaux — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 46% versus Sochaux 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 36% | Sochaux 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.82 xG and Sochaux 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.823 / defence 1.230 | Sochaux attack 0.947 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 0.927 / away 1.019. Data: 11 Rodez games / 11 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 23% | Draw 35% | Sochaux 42%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Sochaux 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 40% | Sochaux 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 23% | Draw 35% | Sochaux 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Rodez 0.82 / Sochaux 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.823 / def 1.230 | Sochaux attack 0.947 / def 1.079 | league avg home 0.927 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sochaux xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Sochaux kick off?
Rodez vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Sochaux?
Rodez 0 - 1 Sochaux.
Where is Rodez vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Sochaux part of?
Rodez vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 23% chance of winning, Sochaux a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Rodez and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Sochaux in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Sochaux (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rodez's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (0.95x) against Rodez's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
23%
4.32
35%
2.88
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.01
1.19
Sochaux xG
4.32
23%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
7%
14.16
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rodez and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Rodez and 1.19 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 4D 4L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 2.09 PPG from 11 outings (7W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sochaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Rodez — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Rodez's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Sochaux have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.09 scored and 0.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sochaux in 27%.
Defensively: Sochaux in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.20 PPG; Sochaux away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Rodez or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sochaux in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sochaux have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rodez
0
Draws
4
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 0, Sochaux have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Rodez 1-2 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sochaux tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 40%, Sochaux 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Rodez) and 60% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 40% of games; Sochaux in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rodez's recent matches and 60% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Rodez's recent games and 60% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Sochaux tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out Rodez 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Rodez 0-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.82 xG and Sochaux 1.19 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rodez fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.82 / defence 1.23 against Sochaux attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 23% | Draw 35% | Sochaux 42%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 36%, Sochaux 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sochaux's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Sochaux (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.