Oleksandria 1-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to CSC Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Oleksandria (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Oleksandria haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Oleksandria at CSC Nika this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Kryvbas KR haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kryvbas KR away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.30 for Kryvbas KR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Oleksandria 1W, Kryvbas KR 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 63% versus Kryvbas KR 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 50% | Kryvbas KR 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.09 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.065 / defence 1.108 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.885 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.192. Data: 30 Oleksandria games / 30 Kryvbas KR games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 34% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 38%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Kryvbas KR 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 70% | Kryvbas KR 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 34% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Oleksandria 1.09 / Kryvbas KR 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.065 / def 1.108 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.885 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Kryvbas KR xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 34% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
Record (2 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 1W.
What form are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Oleksandria's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (0.89x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.49
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.26
1.17
Kryvbas KR xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.17 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 10W 14D 6L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. Oleksandria haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 12W 5D 13L from 30 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. Kryvbas KR haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.37 for Kryvbas KR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (6W 6D 3L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 0.87 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oleksandria have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Kryvbas KR in 30%.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Pre-Season
Kryvbas KR
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 10W 14D 6L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 12W 5D 13L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.60 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
From 8 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 4, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Oleksandria 1-1 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 67%, Kryvbas KR 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Oleksandria) and 33% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 33% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Oleksandria's recent games and 33% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Kryvbas KR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Kryvbas KR 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.09 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.17 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kryvbas KR landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 34% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 38%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 50%, Kryvbas KR 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.47 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.