Vorskla Poltava 2-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Vorskla Poltava, 0.70 for Veres Rivne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vorskla Poltava lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 54% versus Veres Rivne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 50% | Veres Rivne 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.16 xG and Veres Rivne 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.997 / defence 1.107 | Veres Rivne attack 0.728 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.270. Data: 48 Vorskla Poltava games / 47 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 36% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 30%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Veres Rivne 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 70% | Veres Rivne 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 36% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.16 / Veres Rivne 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.997 / def 1.107 | Veres Rivne attack 0.728 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Veres Rivne xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 36% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
Record (4 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 2 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.73x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
36%
2.74
34%
2.96
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.18
1.02
Veres Rivne xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.02 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 19W 11D 18L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne's form line: 10W 13D 25L from 48 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veres Rivne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 6D 13L from 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.15 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 19W 11D 18L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 10W 13D 25L in their last 48 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Veres Rivne away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.57 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
3
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 3-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 52%, Veres Rivne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Vorskla Poltava) and 35% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 39% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 35% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vorskla Poltava edge out Veres Rivne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Veres Rivne 2-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.16 xG and Veres Rivne 1.02 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Veres Rivne attack 0.73 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 36% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 30%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Veres Rivne 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.