Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv host Chornomorets at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Dynamo Kyiv — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Kyiv's home record at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Dynamo Kyiv have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Dynamo Kyiv, 2 for Chornomorets and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with Chornomorets winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 49% versus Chornomorets 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 51% | Chornomorets 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.82 xG and Chornomorets 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.312 / defence 0.891 | Chornomorets attack 1.006 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.270. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Dynamo Kyiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Dynamo Kyiv games / 47 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 52% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 22%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Chornomorets 4.55. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo Kyiv at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dynamo Kyiv 40% | Chornomorets 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 52% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.82 / Chornomorets 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.312 / def 0.891 | Chornomorets attack 1.006 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Chornomorets xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Dynamo Kyiv 1 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 52% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets?
Record (4 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 2W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 2W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dynamo Kyiv's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.76
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.96
1.14
Chornomorets xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
4%
28.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.14 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 45 games, going 28W 7D 10L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 1.27 PPG from 45 outings (16W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.36 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 28W 7D 10L in their last 45 games (2.02 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Chornomorets away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 1.87 PPG; Chornomorets away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Nov 2021, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Dynamo Kyiv
1
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, Chornomorets have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Chornomorets 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 35%, Chornomorets 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 61% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 70% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 61% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Kyiv edge out Chornomorets 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Chornomorets 1-0 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.82 xG and Chornomorets 1.14 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo Kyiv fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Chornomorets landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.31 / defence 0.89 against Chornomorets attack 1.01 / defence 1.29, drawn from 45/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 52% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 22%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 51%, Chornomorets 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chornomorets's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.