Zorya Luhansk 1-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava meet at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 February 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zorya Luhansk have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Vorskla Poltava are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Zorya Luhansk have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 4 meetings, with Vorskla Poltava managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zorya Luhansk and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Zorya Luhansk half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 52% versus Vorskla Poltava 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 66% | Vorskla Poltava 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 0.90 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.866 / defence 0.933 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.935 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.297. Data: 44 Zorya Luhansk games / 47 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 26% | Draw 36% | Vorskla Poltava 38%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Vorskla Poltava 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Zorya Luhansk dominate the H2H record, yet Vorskla Poltava are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Zorya Luhansk 20% | Vorskla Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 26% | Draw 36% | Vorskla Poltava 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Zorya Luhansk 0.90 / Vorskla Poltava 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.866 / def 0.933 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.935 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Vorskla Poltava xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 26 February 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Zorya Luhansk 1 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 26% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (4 meetings): Zorya Luhansk 4W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 0W.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (0.87) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.94x) against Zorya Luhansk's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 44/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
26%
3.90
36%
2.74
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.03
1.13
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.9 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 1.13 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Zorya Luhansk have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 23W 10D 11L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 19W 11D 14L from 44 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Zorya Luhansk against 1.55 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zorya Luhansk have posted 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 5D 7L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.18 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 19W 11D 14L in their last 44 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.81 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Zorya Luhansk have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zorya Luhansk have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
7
Zorya Luhansk
0
Draws
0
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 7, Vorskla Poltava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 57%, Vorskla Poltava 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Zorya Luhansk) and 48% (Vorskla Poltava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 52% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zorya Luhansk's matches and 48% of Vorskla Poltava's.
Do Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Zorya Luhansk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zorya Luhansk defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 0.90 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.13 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 26% | Draw 36% | Vorskla Poltava 38%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Zorya Luhansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 66%, Vorskla Poltava 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.80 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.