SK Poltava 0-4 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 79% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.

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Match Analysis

SK Poltava host Shakhtar Donetsk at Zirka Stadium in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, SK Poltava stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

SK Poltava's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.

Shakhtar Donetsk — last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shakhtar Donetsk are 2.50 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for SK Poltava, 1 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 8.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended SK Poltava 1–7 Shakhtar Donetsk — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 8.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SK Poltava in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 54% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 65% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 1.01 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 3.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.930 / defence 1.892 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.396 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.220. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack rating of 1.396, which lifts their away xG to 3.22. SK Poltava's defence rating of 1.892 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output up. Data: built from SK Poltava's last 26 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 56.

Result probabilities: SK Poltava 8% | Draw 13% | Shakhtar Donetsk 79%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 13.09 | Draw 7.76 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.26. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (79%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.01 / 3.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 4.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SK Poltava's last 10 home games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SK Poltava 50% (last 10 home games) | Shakhtar Donetsk 50% (last 10 away games).

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