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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava encounter.

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Full Analysis

Cherkasy Arena plays host to LNZ Cherkasy versus SK Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 5W 3D 2L at Cherkasy Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

SK Poltava's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, SK Poltava have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in LNZ Cherkasy's favour (1.60 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — LNZ Cherkasy lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.

SK Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 22% versus SK Poltava 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 30% | SK Poltava 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.82 xG and SK Poltava 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.947 / defence 0.766 | SK Poltava attack 0.711 / defence 1.524. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.262. SK Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.524 — this is suppressing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 LNZ Cherkasy games / 27 SK Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 64% | Draw 24% | SK Poltava 12%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | SK Poltava 8.33. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | SK Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.

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