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Dominant Karpaty run riot with a 0-4 hammering of SK Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karpaty beat SK Poltava 0-4 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.83 xG and Karpaty 1.59 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. SK Poltava fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Karpaty outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.65 / defence 1.49 against Karpaty attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 20% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 55%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 68%, Karpaty 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Karpaty's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.47. Form held, and they took the win. SK Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights