SK Poltava 0-4 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karpaty at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SK Poltava face Karpaty.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zirka Stadium plays host to SK Poltava versus Karpaty in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SK Poltava have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, SK Poltava have posted 1W 1D 7L from their last 9 home games — 0.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game.
Karpaty's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Karpaty's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended SK Poltava 1–1 Karpaty — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SK Poltava — key trading statistics (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Karpaty — key trading statistics (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 58% versus Karpaty 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 68% | Karpaty 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SK Poltava surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Karpaty have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.83 xG and Karpaty 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.652 / defence 1.493 | Karpaty attack 0.887 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.201. SK Poltava's attack rating of 0.652 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. SK Poltava's defence rating of 1.493 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Karpaty's projected output up. Data: built from SK Poltava's last 19 games and Karpaty's last 49.
Result probabilities: SK Poltava 20% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 55%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 5.13 | Draw 3.98 | Karpaty 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Karpaty (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Poltava 44% (last 9 home games) | Karpaty 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Poltava vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Zirka Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Poltava 20% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG SK Poltava 0.83 / Karpaty 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: SK Poltava attack 0.652 / def 1.493 | Karpaty attack 0.887 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
SK Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Karpaty xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Poltava vs Karpaty FAQs
What time does SK Poltava vs Karpaty kick off?
SK Poltava vs Karpaty kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Zirka Stadium.
What was the final score in SK Poltava vs Karpaty?
SK Poltava 0 - 4 Karpaty.
Where is SK Poltava vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Zirka Stadium.
What competition is SK Poltava vs Karpaty part of?
SK Poltava vs Karpaty is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win SK Poltava vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives SK Poltava a 20% chance of winning, Karpaty a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Poltava vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SK Poltava and Karpaty will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will SK Poltava vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SK Poltava's attack rating (0.65) and Karpaty's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (0.89x) against SK Poltava's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from SK Poltava's last 19 games and Karpaty's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
20%
5.13
25%
3.98
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
SK Poltava xG
Total xG
2.42
1.59
Karpaty xG
5.13
20%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
4%
25.17
24%
4.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.1 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Poltava vs Karpaty Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Poltava vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SK Poltava and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for SK Poltava and 1.59 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Poltava vs Karpaty?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, SK Poltava have picked up 0.47 PPG on a 2W 3D 14L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Karpaty's form line: 4W 8D 7L from 19 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Karpaty are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SK Poltava.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Poltava have posted 0.44 PPG from their last 9 home games (1W 1D 7L).
On the road, Karpaty have gone 3W 3D 3L from their last 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karpaty come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Poltava are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 2.47 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.11 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Poltava
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
SK Poltava (Home) vs Karpaty (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Poltava
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ SK Poltava vs Karpaty Form FAQs
What form are SK Poltava and Karpaty in coming into this match?
SK Poltava have gone 2W 3D 14L in their last 19 games (0.47 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Poltava at home or Karpaty away?
Karpaty's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Poltava at home: 0.44 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.33 PPG.
Have SK Poltava or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Karpaty in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SK Poltava
1
Draws
1
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Poltava vs Karpaty H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Karpaty?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Poltava have won 0, Karpaty have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SK Poltava and Karpaty last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: SK Poltava 0-4 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between SK Poltava and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Poltava 44%, Karpaty 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SK Poltava) and 33% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: Karpaty in 44%; SK Poltava have failed to score in 44% of games; Karpaty in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Poltava home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Poltava vs Karpaty Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Poltava and Karpaty matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of SK Poltava's recent matches and 33% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SK Poltava and Karpaty matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of SK Poltava's recent games and 33% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Poltava and Karpaty matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of SK Poltava's recent matches and 78% of Karpaty's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karpaty run riot with a 0-4 hammering of SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat SK Poltava 0-4 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.83 xG and Karpaty 1.59 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. SK Poltava fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Karpaty outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.65 / defence 1.49 against Karpaty attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 20% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 55%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 68%, Karpaty 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Poltava's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karpaty's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.47. Form held, and they took the win. SK Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.