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Poisson model rates Karpaty at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Poltava vs Karpaty fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Zirka Stadium plays host to SK Poltava versus Karpaty in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SK Poltava have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SK Poltava have posted 1W 1D 7L at Zirka Stadium — 0.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game.

Karpaty's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Karpaty's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SK Poltava 0W, Karpaty 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

SK Poltava — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Karpaty — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 58% versus Karpaty 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 68% | Karpaty 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.83 xG and Karpaty 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.652 / defence 1.493 | Karpaty attack 0.887 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.201. SK Poltava's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 SK Poltava games / 49 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SK Poltava 20% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 55%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Karpaty 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Karpaty (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 44% | Karpaty 40% BTTS from recent games.

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