SK Poltava 3-3 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zirka Stadium plays host to SK Poltava versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
SK Poltava (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
SK Poltava at home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kryvbas KR away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kryvbas KR are 1.30 PPG clear of SK Poltava over their recent games (1.50 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended SK Poltava 2–2 Kryvbas KR — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SK Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 52% versus Kryvbas KR 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Poltava 64% | Kryvbas KR 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.92 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.752 / defence 1.843 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.884 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.213. SK Poltava's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. SK Poltava's defence rating of 1.843 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kryvbas KR's projected output up. Data: built from SK Poltava's last 25 games and Kryvbas KR's last 55.
Result probabilities: SK Poltava 17% | Draw 22% | Kryvbas KR 62%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 6.04 | Draw 4.59 | Kryvbas KR 1.62. The model has a clear lean to Kryvbas KR (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SK Poltava's last 10 home games and Kryvbas KR's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SK Poltava 40% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Zirka Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Poltava 17% | Draw 22% | Kryvbas KR 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG SK Poltava 0.92 / Kryvbas KR 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: SK Poltava attack 0.752 / def 1.843 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.884 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
SK Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Kryvbas KR xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Friday 1 May 2026 at Zirka Stadium.
What was the final score in SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
SK Poltava 3 - 3 Kryvbas KR.
Where is SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Zirka Stadium.
What competition is SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR part of?
SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives SK Poltava a 17% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SK Poltava's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (0.88x) against SK Poltava's defence (1.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from SK Poltava's last 25 games and Kryvbas KR's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
17%
6.04
22%
4.59
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
SK Poltava xG
Total xG
2.90
1.98
Kryvbas KR xG
6.04
17%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
14%
7.21
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
2%
43.56
25%
4.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for SK Poltava and 1.98 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SK Poltava come into this having played 25 games, going 2W 5D 18L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (11W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of SK Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SK Poltava's home form reads 1W 2D 9L across their last 12 home games, a 0.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 12 away games (4W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Poltava are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.52 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.72 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Poltava
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
SK Poltava (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Poltava
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
SK Poltava have gone 2W 5D 18L in their last 25 games (0.44 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 11W 7D 7L in their last 25 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Poltava at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Poltava at home: 0.42 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SK Poltava
2
Draws
0
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Poltava have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2026: SK Poltava 3-3 Kryvbas KR.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Poltava 42%, Kryvbas KR 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SK Poltava and 58% for Kryvbas KR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Poltava have failed to score in 50% of games; Kryvbas KR in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Poltava home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Poltava vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of SK Poltava's recent matches and 50% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SK Poltava's matches and 58% of Kryvbas KR's.
Do SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of SK Poltava's recent matches and 67% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR drew 3-3 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.92 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.98 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SK Poltava beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.75 / defence 1.84 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 17% | Draw 22% | Kryvbas KR 62%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 64%, Kryvbas KR 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Poltava's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SK Poltava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.