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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Zirka Stadium to face SK Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 21 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form

SK Poltava (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Zirka Stadium, SK Poltava have gone 1W 1D 3L this season (5 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — SK Poltava are significantly better at Zirka Stadium than their overall form suggests.

LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. LNZ Cherkasy are 1.60 PPG clear of SK Poltava in recent Premier League fixtures (1.90 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Trading & In-Play

SK Poltava — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 67% versus LNZ Cherkasy 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 67% | LNZ Cherkasy 17%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.83 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.920 / defence 1.356 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.085 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.306. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 SK Poltava games / 42 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SK Poltava 16% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 63%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.59. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 60% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.

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