Ruh Lviv 1-3 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ruh Lviv face Oleksandria.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ruh Lviv welcome Oleksandria to Arena Lviv in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 2D 8L — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Ruh Lviv at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Oleksandria — last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ruh Lviv at 0.20 PPG versus Oleksandria's 0.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Oleksandria 0, with 7 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 8 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Ruh Lviv 1–0 Oleksandria — a Ruh Lviv win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ruh Lviv trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 37% versus Oleksandria 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 35% | Oleksandria 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.17 xG and Oleksandria 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.742 / defence 1.234 | Oleksandria attack 0.856 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.248. Ruh Lviv's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Oleksandria's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ruh Lviv's projected output up. Ruh Lviv's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Oleksandria's projected output up. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 58 games and Oleksandria's last 57.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 39%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.19 | Draw 3.33 | Oleksandria 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 50% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Ruh Lviv 1.17 / Oleksandria 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.742 / def 1.234 | Oleksandria attack 0.856 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Oleksandria xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 3 Oleksandria.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 31% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.74x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 58 games and Oleksandria's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
31%
3.19
30%
3.33
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.49
1.32
Oleksandria xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.32 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 14W 14D 29L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Oleksandria's form line: 22W 14D 21L from 57 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 29 home games (7W 8D 14L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 8W 10D 11L from their last 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Current Season
Oleksandria
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Current Season
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 14W 14D 29L in their last 57 games (0.98 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 22W 14D 21L in their last 57 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.00 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
7
Draws
1
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Oleksandria have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Ruh Lviv 1-3 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 45%, Oleksandria 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Ruh Lviv) and 41% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games; Oleksandria in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 48% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 41% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 66% of Oleksandria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Ruh Lviv 1-3 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.17 xG and Oleksandria 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Oleksandria outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.74 / defence 1.23 against Oleksandria attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 39%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 35%, Oleksandria 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Oleksandria's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.