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Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Kudrivka host Ruh Lviv at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 14 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Kudrivka — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kudrivka's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Obolon Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ruh Lviv's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Kudrivka) versus 0.20 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kudrivka, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 2–4 with Ruh Lviv winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Kudrivka in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 7% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 59% versus Ruh Lviv 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 48% | Ruh Lviv 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.12 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.796 / defence 1.226 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.569 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.259. Kudrivka's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Kudrivka games / 57 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kudrivka 40% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 27%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Ruh Lviv 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kudrivka are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kudrivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 70% | Ruh Lviv 10% BTTS from recent games.

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