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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Kudrivka in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 18 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Kudrivka have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Kudrivka's home record at Obolon Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On a straight form reading, LNZ Cherkasy are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kudrivka lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Kudrivka half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 60% versus LNZ Cherkasy 23%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kudrivka 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 27%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 0.69 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.865 / defence 1.225 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.067 / defence 0.628. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.280. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.628 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 Kudrivka games / 58 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kudrivka 14% | Draw 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 60%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 7.14 | Draw 3.85 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.67. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 70% | LNZ Cherkasy 20% BTTS from recent games.

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