Ruh Lviv 2-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Lviv meet at Arena L'viv in Premier League (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 May 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ruh Lviv's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lviv (all games): 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Lviv away from home: 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Ruh Lviv. A 0.60 PPG lead over Lviv (0.70 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2022, ended Ruh Lviv 1–2 Lviv — a Lviv win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 49% versus Lviv 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 37% | Lviv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.75 xG and Lviv 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.022 / defence 0.817 | Lviv attack 0.818 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.195. Lviv's defence rating of 1.419 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ruh Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 43 games and Lviv's last 44.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 60% | Draw 23% | Lviv 17%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.67 | Draw 4.31 | Lviv 5.96. The model has a clear lean to Ruh Lviv (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 70% (last 10 home games) | Lviv 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 60% | Draw 23% | Lviv 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Ruh Lviv 1.75 / Lviv 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.022 / def 0.817 | Lviv attack 0.818 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Lviv xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Lviv FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Lviv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Lviv kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Lviv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 60% chance of winning, Lviv a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Lviv's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Lviv's attack (0.82x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 43 games and Lviv's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.31
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.55
0.80
Lviv xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
3%
34.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.80 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 43 games, going 9W 15D 19L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Lviv sit at 0.67 PPG from 43 outings (7W 8D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 0.67 for Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 6W 10D 5L across their last 21 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Lviv have taken 0.71 points per game from their last 21 away games (4W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.72 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Lviv
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Lviv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 9W 15D 19L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Lviv have gone 7W 8D 28L in their last 43 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.33 PPG; Lviv away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 21 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
1
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Lviv?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 May 2023: Ruh Lviv 2-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 57%, Lviv 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ruh Lviv) and 33% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 29% of games; Lviv in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 38% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruh Lviv and Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 33% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 52% of Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Lviv 2-0 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.75 xG and Lviv 0.80 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.02 / defence 0.82 against Lviv attack 0.82 / defence 1.42, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 60% | Draw 23% | Lviv 17%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 37%, Lviv 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Lviv's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 0.98 PPG, Lviv 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.