Ruh Lviv 2-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Lviv meet at Arena L'viv in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 May 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ruh Lviv's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Arena L'viv this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Lviv (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Ruh Lviv. A 0.60 PPG lead over Lviv (0.70 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Lviv and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Lviv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 49% versus Lviv 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 37% | Lviv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.75 xG and Lviv 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.022 / defence 0.817 | Lviv attack 0.818 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.195. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Ruh Lviv games / 44 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 60% | Draw 23% | Lviv 17%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Lviv 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ruh Lviv (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 70% | Lviv 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 60% | Draw 23% | Lviv 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.75 / Lviv 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.022 / def 0.817 | Lviv attack 0.818 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Lviv xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Lviv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Lviv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 60% chance of winning, Lviv a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 0 | Lviv 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Lviv in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Lviv (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Lviv's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Lviv's attack (0.82x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.31
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.55
0.80
Lviv xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
3%
34.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.80 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Lviv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 43 games, going 9W 15D 19L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lviv sit at 0.67 PPG from 43 outings (7W 8D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 0.67 for Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 6W 10D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Lviv have taken 0.71 points per game from 21 outings (4W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.72 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Lviv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 9W 15D 19L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Lviv have gone 7W 8D 28L in their last 43 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.33 PPG; Lviv away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
1
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Ruh Lviv 2-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 57%, Lviv 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ruh Lviv) and 33% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 29% of games; Lviv in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 38% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 33% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Lviv tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lviv in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Lviv 2-0 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.75 xG and Lviv 0.80 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.02 / defence 0.82 against Lviv attack 0.82 / defence 1.42, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 60% | Draw 23% | Lviv 17%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 37%, Lviv 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Lviv's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 0.98 PPG, Lviv 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.