Oleksandria 1-5 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo Kyiv at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Dynamo Kyiv travel to KSK Nika to take on Oleksandria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at KSK Nika this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo Kyiv are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 2 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 57% versus Dynamo Kyiv 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 46% | Dynamo Kyiv 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.02 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.168 / defence 0.879 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.193 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.175. Dynamo Kyiv's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Oleksandria games / 44 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo Kyiv 41%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Oleksandria 70% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo Kyiv 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Oleksandria 1.02 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.168 / def 0.879 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.193 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Dynamo Kyiv xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Oleksandria 1 - 5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 31% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (2 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 2W.
What form are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 1.17x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
31%
3.28
28%
3.51
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.25
1.23
Dynamo Kyiv xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.25
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.23 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oleksandria come into this having played 44 games, going 17W 17D 10L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.16 PPG from 44 outings (29W 8D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oleksandria's home form reads 10W 6D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.50 points per game from 20 outings (16W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 1.95 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 17W 17D 10L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 29W 8D 7L in their last 44 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.80 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Oleksandria
2
Draws
7
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 60%, Dynamo Kyiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Oleksandria) and 50% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Dynamo Kyiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Oleksandria's games and 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Oleksandria's recent games and 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Oleksandria 1-5 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.02 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.23 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.17 / defence 0.88 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.19 / defence 0.73, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 31% | Draw 28% | Dynamo Kyiv 41%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 46%, Dynamo Kyiv 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oleksandria (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.